Polar Reversal in 2012

[Gemcat]

Are the North and South Poles due for reversal? I've read that it will happen in 2012. What effects will this magnetic reversal have? Has anyone heard of this?

[Celtaur]

I've been hearing about this since the late 90's, and one of the dates considered for a pole shift was on May 5, 2000 when there was a planetary alignment. I remember there were books about it in new age stores talking about how the world would end, or much of it destroyed, etc.

I think there was a grand cross in August of that year or 99 as well which new age books were saying was a sign. From what I remember the planetary alignment was in Taurus so it was symbolic of earth changes and it was thought there would be such a great focus of energy with the planets aligned that it would wreak havoc on the earth. As I recall, the story was the earth was going to shift on it's axis, so the north and south poles would not necessarily switch, shifting about 90 degrees so the equator's would be where the poles are now. Nothing happened on a grand scale that was evident though and after that I think the story moved towards the pole shift actually being a more gradual shift rather than a sudden cataclysmic shift, and earth changes would follow such as an increase in earthquakes, volcanoes, weather changes, etc.

Now I guess maybe the idea moved into 2012, which has long been forecasted to be a time of great change. Some think it will be physical, like an Armageddon, others think it will be a shift in consciousness, and some think it will be a shift into another dimension which I think has a lot of differing idea's surrounding it.

[Haruth]

A magnetic reversal is highly unlikely in our lifetimes, but certainly possible, Gemcat.

The magnetic poles wobble ever so slightly all the time, with the north magnetic pole being somewhere in the Canadian shield region, rather than at the north pole proper, and it is quite usual for it to wander about 0.2º in year. (At least from where I'm standing - the effect varies depending on where you are relative to the movement). Currently, it is known to be heading roughly northwestwards towards Siberia, and at it's current speed and direction should arrive there in around 45-60 years.

There is also a daily shift, which is much more substantial than the annual movement, with the pole tracing an elliptical pattern with an 80-90 kilometre range. This daily shift is caused by the effects of charged particles from the sun on the planet's magnetic field.

The most widely accepted theory is that the magnetic field is generated by currents in the planet's dense iron core. It was once thought that for a full scale reversal, these currents would need to be disrupted significantly - and for that to occur, there would need to be some massive input of energy into the system. Think of it as the fruit part of an orange twisting right round with the peel remaining in the same place (though not quite - but you get the idea ) For this reason, scientists originally believed that such reversals must coincide with massive, deep impact comet strikes, but that has been shown to be unlikely.

Recent speculation has centred on observations of the sun's magnetic field, which undergoes rapid reversals every 9-12 years. The magnetic field of the sun becomes 'entangled', due to variation in the speed of rotation of the plasma. At the poles, the plasma hardly moves at all, at the equator, the plasma is spinning a rather large distance... This is easy to observe in gas, and it is assumed that similar dynamic changes are likely to be occurring in the core fluids at the centre of the Earth. Being a much denser medium, the 'entanglement' of the Earth's field occurs over a much longer time frame.

The average time between Earth's magnetic pole reversals is in the region of 300,000 years. The last reversal occurred some 780,000 years ago. So by the law of averages we are long overdue one. I feel that the time (late 60's - early 70's) when this information was coming to public attention, coincided with an unfortunate focus on the approaching millenium change... Apocalyptic fervour and an overdue field reversal might make happy bedfellows, and hence the date associations which you have outlined.

The reality is that a reversal is not nearly so imminent. It has been observed that the field is weakening rapidly, and some scientists have speculated that this may be a precursor to a reversal when the field collapses entirely, which, at the present rate of decline, might occur around 3,000 - 4,000 CE. However, others disagree, as the reversals observed on the sun occur during times of particularly strong magnetic activity.

I certainly wouldn't want to be around in 3,000 - 4,000 years time to find out, of course. With the magnetic field collapsing, the resulting storm of charged particles reaching the Earth's surface wouldn't make for a great time to be around. The core of your concern, IF that is the way reversals come about, may be justified...

Of course, the currently observed weakening may be a natural pattern of decline and increase in the field activity - we simply do not know, as the means of observing the magnetic field in such detail have not been with us long enough to be able to draw any firm conclusions. In essence, scientists haven't really made up their minds on either front: what generates the magnetic field in the first place, what causes the field to reverse, and what effects, if any, there would be on life on the planet.

What is for certain, however, is that the more outlandish "Earth Flips on Axis" type theories are simply wrong! The sheer inertia involved in the spinning of the planet makes it a physical impossibility, as well as showing a complete misunderstanding of how the magnetic field is generated.

Hope that helps.

[brifae]

There are several threads her about 2012, I dont tend to believe in this theory

[redbear]

Thanks Haruth, you're a deep mine of useful, wonderful information.

[bsbray]

Whether or not it happens in our lifetimes, the magnetic poles do shift because they've study enough massive boulders to figure that out already. They'll find massive stretches of old rock that were formed under a different magnetic polarity, thing like that.

Then again, they've found frozen jungle under 2-3 feet of Siberian tundra, so a lot of geographic changes in general are much more rapid and no doubt occur by some other mechanism than presently understood.

[Celtaur]

Whether or not it happens in our lifetimes, the magnetic poles do shift because they've study enough massive boulders to figure that out already. They'll find massive stretches of old rock that were formed under a different magnetic polarity, thing like that.

Then again, they've found frozen jungle under 2-3 feet of Siberian tundra, so a lot of geographic changes in general are much more rapid and no doubt occur by some other mechanism than presently understood.

I'll admit I am no expert in carbon dating, and my question will most likely reveal that competely... but I'll go ahead and claim ignorance... Is carbon dating affected by such quick shifts, or are those shifts probably taken into consideration anyway?

[bsbray]

I'll admit I am no expert in carbon dating, and my question will most likely reveal that competely... but I'll go ahead and claim ignorance... Is carbon dating affected by such quick shifts, or are those shifts probably taken into consideration anyway?

Carbon dating is based on the assumption that we know what carbon levels were in the past in relation to other elements in the air. There's a lot of debate because of that. The general idea is that the further back in the past you go, the more carbon there was relative to everything else, but it also varied over time. I'm not sure how scientists think they know how much was available at any given time but I have my doubts about the whole method.


Related to the thread, the magnetic pole is currently over Russia. It's been shifting around a lot lately. Do some Google searches and I'm sure it'll come up.